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The true statistics
A couple of years ago I've read a story in the newspaper about a couple who sailed in a yacht in the
Atlantic Ocean. At a certain moment, a cow fell from an airplane flying above them straight on the woman
and killed her.
The question asked naturally by many people reading this story is, what is the chance for this kind of
incident of happening? Considering the size of the Atlantic Ocean, how did the cow fall exactly on the lady?
I have got an explanation to make this story look a little more logical:
First of all, a very small chance is still not impossible. Remember Murphy's Law: If it could happen,
it will happen.
The second and main explanation is:
Let's say that the chance that the sail across the Atlantic will be completely boring is 40%.
That means that there is a chance of 60% that something will happen on the way. Anything.
This "anything" is divided to a big variaty of possibilities; each one separately has a very small chance
of occurring.
Had you predicted in advance the exact incident of the cow falling on the woman's head in the middle of
the ocean I would tell you that the chance of it happening is very close to zero.
You didn't predict it, didn't you?
In fact, the chance to predict the specific incident is no bigger than the chance for the incident to
occur. That's why the chance for it to happen is not important. There is still a 60% chance for something
to happen, which is the better chance, and that could be anything unpredictable.
November 30th, 2008.
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